Bitcoin (BTC) continues to build momentum since crossing the $45,000 range last Friday before the Chinese New Year kicked off. At around 5:00 PM UTC today, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap just breached the $50,000 mark. Could this be a sign that the trading for the halving has already started?
Here’s One Analyst Who Got Things Right by the Numbers so Far
Last month, 10x Research’s Head of Research Markus Thielen warned that BTC’s trajectory could further dip throughout the “sell the news” affair that occurred following the approval of the first 11 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). He predicted how the digital asset could find dynamic support at the $38,000 level based on the RSI divergence indicator. In consolation, the analyst gave a bold forecast that it could jump up once the trading for the halving begins just in time for the Super Bowl.
Interestingly, Bitcoin lost the $40,000 support and established a new one at the range he projected. From then on, it gradually recovered its stride upwards, and after the Kansas City Chiefs successfully defended their championship against the San Francisco 49ers, the digital currency suddenly shot up to $50,000.
Could this be a sign of a wild ride upwards until the halving?
A Rough Road on the Way to the Bitcoin Halving
Others like DecenTrader, however, suggest that the actual trading for the Bitcoin halving will not start until six weeks before the pivotal event or around the second week of March. It expects a bumpy ride along the way, which could see BTC tanking to another low at $37,000 prior to reclaiming the $49,000.
The analytics firm further cautions of another “sell the news event” taking place similar to the one that happened in the immediate aftermath of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in the US. This will be the time when the true diamond hands’ mettle will be tested as the post-halving is foreseen to trigger a long consolidation phase until the fourth quarter of 2024 between the heavily hyped Uptober in October or a Santa Claus rally in December.
At the end of the ordeal, HODLers could be rewarded to an all-new all-time high, which the Motley Fool bullishly calls at $100,000.
Countdown to the Bitcoin Halving
We only have 64 days remaining until the fourth epoch of the BTC halving, which will cut Bitcoin mining rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. With only around 9,800 blocks remaining until the 840,000th block target, the much-anticipated phenomenon is expected to trigger by April 18, 2024.